PRESSRELEASE
14 marzo 2016

FEEM announces new publication in leading academic journal "Management Science"


Fonte: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei


Abstract

In a new publication "Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion" in the leading academic journal Management Science, three FEEM researchers (Loic Berger, Johannes Emmerling and Massimo Tavoni) shed new light on the role of catastrophes for climate change.

Growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere might lead to catastrophic climatic events, a major reason of concern among climate and policy analysts. The uncertainties surrounding these dramatic consequences are and will remain profound, given the innate unpredictability of the earth climate. Climatologists predictions are thus profoundly uncertain, and often hard to reconcile. This complicates the work of policymakers, which have to negotiate courses of action for the next future.

In this paper, the authors apply new tools from decision theory which allow to take into account experts disagreement about climate change catastrophes. The results, confirmed by both mathematical and numerical methods, indicate that the more experts disagree the more we should reduce emissions today. The effect of scientific ambiguity was tested on the case of the collapse of the ocean circulation in the Atlantic, featured in the science-fiction movie The day after tomorrow.

The study is the outcome of a research project funded by the European Commission. It  comes at a time when international climate policy has to begin to operationalize the agreement reached in Paris last December.

Full citation information: Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion, Management Science, Articles in Advance, pp. primary_article






 

FEEM Newsletter

Iscriviti per rimanere aggiornato.

I Suoi dati saranno trattati dalla Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – Titolare del trattamento – per ricevere via posta elettronica la newsletter della Fondazione. Il conferimento dell’indirizzo e-mail è necessario alla fornitura del servizio. La invitiamo a consultare la Privacy Policy per ottenere maggiori informazioni a tutela dei Suoi diritti.

Questo Sito utilizza cookie tecnici e analytics, nonché consente l’invio di cookie di profilazione di terze parti.
Chiudendo questo banner o comunque proseguendo la navigazione sul Sito manifesti il tuo consenso all’uso dei cookie. Per ulteriori informazioni e per esprimere scelte selettive in ordine all’uso dei cookie vedi la   Cookie PolicyOk